Friday, October 3, 2014
Tropical Storm Simon to Curve Back Into Mexico Kristina Pydynowski By Kristina Pydynowski, Senior Meteorologist October 3, 2014; 9:10 AM ET
An overview of the tropics is given in the above AccuWeather.com video.
While Simon is currently churning away from Mexico, the tropical storm should eventually turn and target Mexico's Baja California.
Tropical Storm Simon took shape early Thursday morning about 135 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
While Simon is currently tracking to the west-northwest away from mainland Mexico, residents should not let their guard down. That includes those living or planning to visit Baja California next week.
Downpours associated with Simon will continue to stream onto southwestern mainland Mexico through Friday, soaking the states of western Guerrero, western Michoacan, Colima, western Jalisco and Nayarit. At the same time, rough surf will create hazards for beachgoers and operators of small craft.
The tropical downpours have the potential to unleash 1 to 3 inches of rain, which may cause flash flooding and mudslides.
On Friday, surf will build at the beaches of Cabo San Lucas as a shower or thunderstorm returns in the afternoon.
"The shower and thunderstorm activity will increase around Cabo San Lucas Friday night through Saturday with locally heavy rain a threat," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller.
Also through Saturday, Simon will continue to strengthen and reach hurricane status. The good news is that the heaviest rain and strongest winds will remain offshore during this time.
Simon should begin to weaken as the weekend comes to a close, but that is also when the storm will begin curving back to the northeast and toward Baja California.
Simon should reach the central Baja California during the first part of next week, but Miller anticipates its heavy rain to arrive much sooner.
"Early next week, more widespread heavy rain will spread across the central and southern Baja California and into the mainland Mexican states of Sonora and Sinaloa."
As the heavy rain returns, so will the dangers of flooding and mudslides.
Rough surf will also continue to pound the coast of Baja California and nearby southwestern Mexico early next week as Simon approaches, then moves onshore. Since Simon will be weakening, the threat for any damaging winds will lie in the vicinity of Simon's landfall.
"Wind damage will depend on how much strength Simon has at the time of landfall," continued Miller. "Based on the current forecast track, I would expect Simon to produce localized tree limb damage and power outages."
Once over mainland Mexico, the center of Simon will fall apart, but AccuWeather.com meteorologists will be monitoring the potential for its moisture and downpours to spread northward into the United States' Four Corners region and Texas.
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