Friday, September 22, 2017
Southern Mexico to face downpours, building seas from budding tropical depression
Southern Mexico to face downpours, building seas from budding tropical depression
By Kristina Pydynowski, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
September 22, 2017, 9:35:05 AM EDT
A budding tropical depression is expected to cause seas to build and raise the risk for flooding downpours in southern Mexico into this weekend.
A broad area of low pressure is closely being monitored to become the next tropical depression in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
"This area of low pressure is expected to organize and become a tropical depression or storm during the upcoming weekend," AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
The next tropical storm in the eastern Pacific Ocean will acquire the name "Pilar."
Even prior to development, the slow-moving low will continue to stream downpours onto the southern coast of Mexico into this weekend.
"Locally 25-75 mm (1-3 inches) of rain could fall through Sunday, especially in the higher elevations," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Rob Miller said.
Isolated incidents of flash flooding and mudslides may result. The downpours may also lead to travel delays and disruptions to vacation plans in Manzanillo and Acapulco.
The threat to swimmers and operators of small craft will also increase as the depression takes shape and seas build.
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The storm may continue to strengthen as it churns over the warm waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean early next week, and it is possible that it becomes a hurricane.
Rain, wind and seas will further increase around the system as it intensifies.
Beyond this weekend, the storm may be pulled to the north or northeast toward mainland Mexico by a dip in the jet stream, which is a river of fast-flowing air that guides storms.
It is also possible that the jet stream lifts back to the north before totally capturing the storm, allowing it then to turn toward Baja California.
“If it aims at Mexico, any direct impacts on Baja California, Sinaloa and southern Sonora would not occur until the middle of next week.”
In this latter scenario, rain and wind may first increase across western Jalisco on Sunday and Monday depending on how close the strengthening system forms to the coast.
If the storm is not influenced by the jet stream, it may linger offshore for a time next week before curving back to the southwest over the open water of the Pacific.
Regardless of which scenario pans out, dangerous seas will pound Baja California Sur and the western coast of mainland Mexico next week. Conditions may become too hazardous for swimmers and shipping interests.
The exact track of the budding depression will become clearer as it takes shape.
Until these details of the forecast are finessed, all residents and vacationers from Jalisco to southern Sonora and Baja California are urged to review what precautions would need to be taken if a tropical storm or hurricane threatens.
Swimmers are urged to heed all beach closures, warnings or statements that get issued.
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