Friday, October 23, 2015
How the ingredients for a catastrophic storm came together for Hurricane Patricia October 23, 2015 at 6:40 PM EDT
How the ingredients for a catastrophic storm came together for Hurricane Patricia
Hurricane Patricia may be one of the most dangerous storms to ever hit the Western Hemisphere, with winds of 190 miles an hour. William Brangham learns more about the forecast from Bob Henson of Weather Underground.
TRANSCRIPT
JUDY WOODRUFF: Hurricane Patricia has been described as potentially one of the most dangerous storms to ever hit the Western Hemisphere. Meteorologists now say that Patricia is bringing with it winds of 190 miles an hour, down just slightly from earlier.
William Brangham has more on the storm itself and what is fueling it. He recorded this interview a short time ago, as the storm was approaching Mexico.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: Bob Henson is a meteorologist for Weather Underground, a Web-based weather service that also has a weekday show on The Weather Channel. Henson is also author of five books on weather and climate change.
So, Bob Henson, it seems like meteorologists like yourself have run out of terms to describe the intensity of the storm. Yesterday, it was a Category 1. We wake up this morning, it’s a Category 5. How did this storm get so big so fast?
BOB HENSON, Weather Underground: It’s a true outlier.
You know, there’s only a very, very few hurricanes or typhoons in world history that we know about that have intensified so quickly. They have really only been observing these systems in depth for the last several decades, say, so we can’t really say how strong hurricanes were in 1900 or 1800.
But, certainly in the modern era of hurricane hunting and satellites, for a storm to go to from a tropical storm to a Cat 5 in, say, 24 hours, 30 hours, those kinds of numbers only happen once in a very rare while. So, this is up in the ranks of maybe the top three or four most rapidly strengthening storms.
And, basically, it’s because it was over extremely warm water that went to some depth, so the winds didn’t stir up colder water to weaken it. And upper winds were very weak, which allowed it to intensify rapidly. Really, just all the ingredients came together in just the right way, which, surprisingly, doesn’t happen all that often.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: You mentioned that calling this a Category 5, which is the top of the Saffir-Simpson scale, is almost an insufficient description of this storm. Can you explain?
BOB HENSON: Yes.
The Saffir-Simpson scale was developed several decades ago, and it breaks hurricanes down into five bins, Category 1 all the way up to Category 5. Now, most of those bins are about 28-to-30-miles-per-hour-wide, you might put it. Category 5 starts at 156 miles an hour, but it has no ceiling. It’s 156 and up.
This storm had peak winds of 200, so it was 45 miles an hour above the Category 5 threshold. You might say that, if we had a Cat 6 and Cat 7, that it would fall in the Cat 7 range, close to that. We don’t parse storms out when they get so strong, in part because once you get to Cat 5, it pretty much destroys everything except a really well-constructed building, so there is not as much operational significance to it.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: So, at that level of intensity, is that what we’re expecting that is going to just cause some incredible damage on the coast of Mexico?
BOB HENSON: Well, fortunately, it has weakened a little bit as it has approached land. It’s still a very, very powerful hurricane, still a Category 5, as in the most recent observations within the last couple of hours.
Now, the storm surge is going to be pretty significant over a relatively small area. And that’s another blessing with this storm. It’s not a gigantic hurricane. But there will be an area of a few miles where I would expect very, very severe destruction. And, moreover, when it runs into very steep mountains and hillsides just inland, it is going to be dumping gigantic amounts of rain, again, over not a gigantic area, but there could be tremendous amounts of rain along the way. So, mudslides and floods are also going to be a real issue.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: And then my understanding is that the storm is likely to continue on breaking up somewhat, but then heading into Southern Texas. What are you forecasting for Texas to be looking at?
BOB HENSON: Still pretty stout winds. There will be some high water along the Texas coast, but mainly a lot of rain. Could be six to 12 inches of rain in places like Houston.
And there is an ongoing heavy rain event over Texas already because of a separate storm, so there’s going to be some very, very large local rainfall amounts. And Texas is notorious for October systems that bring in tropical moisture and ex-hurricanes from the Pacific. So this is really something to watch as well.
WILLIAM BRANGHAM: OK.
Bob Henson of Weather Underground, thank you very much.
BOB HENSON: Thank you.
Top news View all Link to headline article Historic Hurricane Patricia strikes Mexico as a vicious Category 5 storm Heavy rains and strong winds will affect Guadalajara, which is Mexico's third-largest city, with 1.5 million people. The storm will also enhance heavy rainfall and flooding into… Profile image of authorMashable Oct 23, 2015
Patricia, 'the most dangerous storm in history,' makes landfall in Mexico Greg Botelho-Profile-Image By Greg Botelho and Ray Sanchez, CNN Updated 7:38 PM ET, Fri October 23, 2015
Patricia, 'the most dangerous storm in history,' makes landfall in Mexico
(CNN)[Breaking news update, posted at 7:34 p.m. ET]
Hurricane Patricia -- the strongest hurricane ever recorded -- made landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast about 6:15 Friday evening (7:15 ET), its 165 mph winds barreling into the coast of southwestern Mexico near Cuixmala, the U.S. National Weather Service said.
[Previous story, posted at 6:35 p.m. ET]
Hurricane Patricia -- the strongest hurricane ever recorded -- weakened slightly Friday as it barreled closer to Mexico's Pacific coast, with sustained winds decreasing to 190 mph and gusts to 235 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its latest advisory.
The storm began lashing the coast Friday evening with strong winds and rain as tourists and residents in resorts such as Puerto Vallarta and Manzanillo sought shelter. Areas near the expected landfall braced for potentially catastrophic 200-mph sustained winds and torrential rains.
Late Friday afternoon, the storm was centered 60 miles (95 kilometers) west of Manzanillo, and 110 miles south of Cabo Corrientes.
Moving at 14 mph, it is forecast to pivot north-northeast later Friday and pick up speed -- especially after it makes landfall, when Patricia should both accelerate and "rapidly weaken over the mountains of Mexico," according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center.
The excessive wind speeds, according to the head of the Mexican agency that includes its national weather service, "makes Patricia the most dangerous storm in history."
By that, CONAGUA director Robert Ramirez de la Parra meant any cyclone ever measured, not just in and around Mexico.
Ramirez de la Parra predicted Patricia wouldl make landfall somewhere on the coast of Jalisco state -- which includes the tourist hot spot of Puerto Vallarta and is close to Manzanillo and Colima -- between 5 and 6 p.m. CT (6 and 7 p.m. ET). But its impact was felt much sooner, with 100 kph (62 mph) winds lashing the region in the early afternoon.
"The hurricane is so big and so intense that it has the capacity to pass over both the Sierra Madres in our country -- that is, through our most mountainous ranges -- and then exit the country on the other side into the north part of the Gulf of Mexico and possibly the United States," Ramirez de la Parra said.
While its strength could fluctuate, "Patricia is expected to remain an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane through landfall," the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Friday afternoon.
Already, Patricia is "the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific basins," according to a Friday morning forecast discussion.
The closest contender, at this point, might be Hurricane Camille, which battered the U.S. Gulf Coast in 1969. Patricia looks to be more powerful than that storm, as well as stronger than Hurricane Andrew in 1992, Katrina in 2005 and many others.
It already has surpassed them in one way: its central pressure reading -- the weight of the air above a system -- which is a key measure of any storm's strength.
The midday Friday central pressure recording of 879 millibars (the barometric pressure equivalent is 25.96 inches) "is the lowest for any tropical cyclone globally for over 30 years," according to the Met Office, Britain's weather service.
Patricia's intensity is comparable to Typhoon Haiyan, which hit the Philippines in 2013, the World Meteorological Organization tweeted. More than 6,000 people died in Haiyan, due largely to enormous storm surges that rushed through coastal areas. Haiyan had 195 mph sustained windswhen it made landfall, while Typhoon Tip was at 190 mph (and had a slightly lower pressure reading of 870 millibars) in 1979.
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