Tropical Storm GILMA

Tropical Storm GILMA

---

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive

Hurricane Wind Speed Probability

50-knot Wind Speed Probability

Trop Storm Wind Speed Probability

Maximum Wind Speed Probability

Warnings/Cone Interactive Map	Warnings/Cone Static Images	Warnings and Surface Wind	Mariner's 1-2-3 Rule	Wind History

Coastal Watches/Warnings and 5-Day Forecast Cone for Storm Center

Click image to zoom in – Download GIS data
Other images: 5-Day track on – 3-Day track on – 3-Day track off – Interactive^New! 
Click Here for a Printer Friendly Graphic 
Note: If a storm is expected to dissipate within 5 days, its track will be shorter

Tropical Storm GILMA Forecast Advisory

---

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive

ZCZC MIATCMEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072012
2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 113.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 113.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 15.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.4N 117.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.9N 118.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.2N 119.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 17.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 18.0N 121.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 18.0N 122.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 113.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Hurricane Ernesto bores in on coast of Yucatan

• ShareThis
• Print
• E-mail

By GABRIEL ALCOCER 

The Associated Press

CANCUN, Mexico — Hundreds of tourists evacuated beach resorts along Mexico's Caribbean coast as Hurricane Ernesto closed in for a Tuesday night landfall near Mexico's border with Belize, bringing the threat of powerful winds and torrential rains.

This NOAA satellite image taken Monday, Aug. 6, 2012 at 1:45 p.m. EDT shows a swirl of clouds in the western Caribbean Sea associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto as it moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula. This storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later Monday before possibly making landfall in northern Belize Wednesday. Ernesto could strengthen once it emerges in the Bay of Campeche. (AP Photo/Weather Underground)

This NOAA satellite image taken Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2012 at 1:45 a,m, EDT shows a swirl of clouds in the western Caribbean Sea associated with Tropical Storm Ernesto as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Ernesto is expected to strengthen into a hurricane being landfall just north of Belize late Tuesday evening. Clouds in the Southeast are associated with a front is will continue to provide a few thunderstorms in the region Tuesday. (AP PHOTO/WEATHER UNDERGROUND)

View of the beach in Tulum, Mexico, Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2012, as Tropical Storm Ernesto brings the threat of hurricane-force winds and torrential rains to the Caribbean coast. The heart of the storm was expected to hit south of Cancun and the Riviera Maya, though strong rain and winds were likely there, and officials prepared shelters there as a precaution. (AP Photo/Israel Leal)

The Valladares family from Mexico City stand near the sea in Tulum, Mexico, Tuesday, Aug. 7, 2012 as Tropical Storm Ernesto brings the threat of hurricane-force winds and torrential rains to the Caribbean coast. The heart of the storm was expected to hit south of Cancun and the Riviera Maya, though strong rain and winds were likely there, and officials prepared shelters there as a precaution. (AP Photo/Israel Leal)

Election 2012: Across the nation

• Cardinal suing Obama invites him, Romney to dinner
• Obama holds private DC fundraiser
• AdWatch: Democrats' ad hits Romney on Bain past
• Romney: Obama favors 'culture of dependency'
• Romney trips over the word 'Sikh'
• Delegate count: Who's leading GOP?

More Nation & World stories »

• Girl found clinging to floating body
• Company once known as Blackwater settles arms case
• Ark. police investigate fatal patrol car shooting
• Hate music is part of white supremacist circles

Ernesto strengthened from a tropical storm earlier in the day, and the U.S. National Hurricane Center said it had sustained winds of 85 mph (140 kph) by early evening and was moving west-northwest at 18 mph (30 kph). It was centered about 65 miles (105 kilometers) east of Chetumal.

Rain began falling as early as the afternoon and some streets flooded.

Authorities in the Mexican state of Quintana Roo were moving more than 1,300 tourists from resorts in Mahuahal, Balacar and other spots to Chetumal, a bayside city that was expected to see less rain and wind than the coast. Two cruises ships scheduled to dock on the Riviera Maya put off their arrival.

In the city of Tulum, some 6,000 tourists were sheltering in hotels that authorities said were strong enough to qualify as storm shelters. Authorities also prepared two kindergartens as shelters for up to 220 people, but only 20 people had showed up in the early hours at one.

Cruz Garcia, a tourist guide, came to the shelter with his wife from Punta Allen, a low-lying coastal settlement.

"To be over there is a risk because the tide rises and there could be a disaster," Garcia said, adding that he twice went through strong hurricanes while living in the neighboring state of Campeche.

Soldiers and police evacuated all 600 residents of Punta Allen, and authorities were preparing for the evacuation of people from other low-lying coastal settlements, said Luis Gamboa of Quintana Roo's Civil Protection office.

The heart of the storm was expected to hit south of the resort areas of Cancun and the Riviera Maya, though strong rain and winds were likely. Officials prepared shelters as a precaution.

Forecasters said that after moving ashore during the night, Ernesto was expected to take about 24 hours to cross the Yucatan Peninsula and enter the southern Gulf of Mexico in an area dotted with offshore oil platforms owned by the state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos. Its predicted course would then take it to Mexico's Gulf coast near the city of Veracruz.

On its way to Yucatan, the storm swirled over open sea parallel to Honduras' northern coast, but officials there said the threat had passed without any damage or injuries.

Mexican authorities warned of possible flooding in some of the region threatened by Ernesto, where swollen rivers in the past have swept away houses, livestock and people and collapsed mountainsides. In a landslide last year, 31 people were buried in the Chiapas state town of Juan del Grijalva.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Gilma formed in the Pacific Ocean about 620 miles (1,000 kilometers) west of Manzanillo, Mexico, with winds of 40 mph (64 kph). The storm was not expected to threaten land.

___

Associated Press writers Antonio Villegas in Tabasco, Mexico; Alberto Arce in Tegucigalpa, Honduras; and Luis Galeano in Managua, Nicaragua, contributed to this report.

___

August 07, 2012 08:41 PM EDT

Tropical Storm ernesto ERNESTO STRENGTHENS...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT AT AUGUST 6 2012 More

Hotel Castillo Huatulco

Summer Surfing Way Down South

Summer Surfing Way Down South

4AUG

Enjoy a tropical laid back fishing town with the comforts and foods that will put a smile on your face. 

Perfect place to stay in Puerto right in front of the beach in Zicatela, with dorms or really nice cabañas, a Bar & Grill or cook your own concoctions in the communal kitchen on the second floor with a view that doesn't quit. Make your reservations here http://www.puertoescondidohotel.net/ and catch a wave, or enjoy the wonderful beaches we have so close by to snorkel, dive, deep sea fishing, you name it. We'll point you in the right direction.

See the full gallery on Posterous