When Will International Travel Resume?

 

It’s the question on so many travelers’ minds: when will international travel resume? Some places will open up come summer, some places will likely hold off until the fall, and others are already open. Here’s the current rundown and my best guess of what to expect for places that haven’t announced a reopening date yet:  Where you can currently travel A handful of countries are already open to American travelers without any testing, quarantine, or vaccination requirements for entry. These include: 🇲🇽 Mexico 🇨🇷 Costa Rica 🇦🇱 Albania 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic 🇲🇰 North Macedonia 🇹🇿 Tanzania Three more countries have also announced that Americans who have been fully vaccinated can visit today: 🇧🇿 Belize 🇬🇪 Georgia 🇮🇸 Iceland Iceland—a tourist favorite, especially in the summertime—just announced last week that American visitors could bypass any testing/quarantine requirements, as long as they had already been vaccinated. Dozens more countries are currently open to American travelers as well—especially throughout the Caribbean and Latin America—but require a recent negative test.  Future reopening announcements A handful of countries have announced specific dates they’re targeting for when widespread international travel will resume. 🇬🇷 Greece announced that it’s aiming to welcome back international tourists with a negative test or proof of vaccination by May 14 🇪🇸 Spain is also hoping to resume international tourism for vaccinated travelers by mid-May 🇹🇭 Parts of Thailand like Koh Samui are targeting a reopening date of October 1 for vaccinated travelers 🇦🇺 Australia is currently looking at a broader re-opening date of October 31 🇬🇧 The UK has circled May 17 as the earliest restart date for international tourism, but they haven’t detailed what, if any, requirements (vaccination? negative test?) would be in place for visitors  Predictions Now that we’ve reviewed the current state of affairs, let’s get to my predictions for destinations that haven’t announced plans yet. (Many popular tourist destinations in Africa and Latin America are already open for travelers with a recent negative test, so I’ll confine my predictions to Europe and Asia which are largely closed to Americans or require a quarantine upon arrival.) 🇪🇺 Europe: A month or two ago, my sense was that much of Europe would likely reopen by the summer, especially southern European nations that rely heavily on tourism. Since then, my outlook has grown slightly more pessimistic. Vaccination rollout in the EU has been far slower than the US or UK, and another wave of infections may be building in the continent. While the EU is working on reopening borders by this summer for people who have been vaccinated, were previously infected, or test negative, exact timing on when Americans will be welcome back is still unclear. That said, I have some optimism from the fact that numerous countries are really pushing for earlier reopenings, from Greece to Spain to the UK. And reports that the US is planning to allow international visitors by mid-May increases Americans’ hopes of traveling overseas this summer, as some countries will want reciprocity before opening their own borders. My best guess on when Americans will be allowed to visit at least two EU countries without quarantine: 50% chance by June, 65% chance by July, 80% chance by August.  Asia/Pacific: Japan’s recent announcement that overseas fans would not be allowed at this summer’s Olympics struck a blow for hopes of an imminent reopening. Instead, like Thailand and Australia, I think an autumn reopening is more likely for much of the region at this point. My best guess on when Americans will be allowed to visit at least three APAC countries without quarantine: 50% by September, 80% by October. (The Maldives is already open with a recent negative test.) 🇺🇸 Reminder: need negative test to return to US Don’t forget that for all international trips right now, you’re required to show a negative covid test within three days of your return flight to the US. (Many hotels and resorts, especially in Mexico, are offering complimentary tests for guests before their trip home.) I think it’s likely that this requirement will be expanded in the next month or two to include a negative test or proof of vaccination. 🔁 Border restrictions are subject to change As has been the case throughout the pandemic, nothing is written in stone. Dates could get pushed back, but they could also get pushed up. That’s why I’ve been hammering the importance of making your travel plans in pencil rather than pen during the pandemic, especially international trips. Luckily, as we noted last week, most airlines are still waiving change fees on basic economy tickets as long as you book by the end of March (even for travel dates in the summer and beyond). Have you booked flights for international travel this year? Let us know on twitter.   Gear Up For Travel Giveaway