HURRICANE SIMON
Simon has rapidly intensified in the last few hours and is now in the SoCal swell window.
- Published:10/04/14
- Views:2,258
- Comments:0
- Share Article:
Intermediary Update for Saturday morning, October 4th
NOAA latest visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm Simon.
NOAA latest visible satellite loop of Tropical Storm Simon.
- Now a Cat 3 hurricane with 105kt sustained wind
- Well within the SoCal swell window
- Should take a more favorable track to the NW over the next 24-48 hours.
- Not an especially big storm, but not tiny either (seems like the NHC might be underestimating the area of tropical storm force wind a bit based on satellite imagery)
Surf Potential for SoCal/N Baja: Improving and looking pretty good for early next week, assuming Simon behaves as forecast in the next 24-36 hours. We may start to see the first new signs of SE swell Sunday evening, but the bulk of the swell arrives for Mon/Tue. This isn't anywhere close to a Marie type swell, but could certainly produce head high waves for the better breaks in OC, Southern Ventura and Northern LA and overhead waves at standouts in North OC. Stay tuned, we'll have another blog update by this evening and, as always, you can check the Surfline Forecast for further details for your local area.
Look for a full update by this Saturday evening.
Image: The latest track and intensity forecast of Hurricane Simon from the National Hurricane Center (updated on Sat morning, Oct 4th at 8am).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT STATUS: 18.6N, 109.8W as of 8:00AM PDT by the NHC on Friday, Oct 3rd 2014. Tropical Storm Simon is located around 295 miles south of the southern tip of Baja, and tracking WNW around 8kts. Max sustained winds are 50kts with central low pressure at 996mb.
STORM FORECAST: Simon continues to gradually become better organized, while tracking to the WNW into warmer waters and with little shear. This storm looks to turn NW then North over the next couple days, and likely becoming a hurricane (entering SoCal swell window later this afternoon).
Good Things About Simon for SoCal swell potential
1. Fairly large in size.
2. Expected to move into the SoCal swell window later this afternoon, and potentially curving northward over the next couple days (pushing toward SoCal).
3. Forecast to slowly strengthen over the next 24-48hrs to a hurricane.
The Not So Good Thing About Simon
1. At this time, not expected to become all that strong (more than a cat 1), but overall its looking pretty good for SoCal.
SWELL POTENTIAL FOR SOCAL AND BAJA NORTE: Looking very promising at this point. Simon is expected to enter the SoCal/Baja Norte swell window later this afternoon. And if it behaves as forecast, then SoCal and Baja Norte will see a bump of SSE tropical swell (156-165° at 9-12 seconds) build in late Sunday and top out on Monday into Tuesday, delivering fun size waves for the good SSE exposures. NOTE - Due to this extreme SSE angle, many locations will see much less or none of this swell. Strongest zone overall will be North OC, and North LA through Ventura will be decent as well.
SWELL POTENTIAL FOR BAJA SUR AND MEXICO: Much of Mainland Mex (primarily the central and northern coasts) are already seeing surf from Simon. In fact, the SW now shifting WSW'erly tropical swell is already on the way down for theManzanillo area, while a SW Southern Hemi groundswell has taken over (conditions improving too). Better wind/weather conditions prevail around Puerto Vallarta throughMazatlan with the swell building in further and peaking today, but also mixing with the primary SW Southern Hemi groundswell. The blend of these two swells are keeping the surf more broken up for the exposed beachbreaks.
For Baja Sur, the SSE shifting South Simon swell will build into Cabo and the East Cape today and peak tonight. The well exposed spots to the South-SE will offer head high to overhead surf from this swell before dark and then on Saturday morning. NOTE - Baja Sur is also seeing the good size dose of SW Southern Hemi groundswell for the more SW'erly exposed breaks of the region. Furthermore, this storm looks to stay far enough offshore (at least for now) from Baja Sur to allow good wind/weather conditions to prevail.
Stay tuned to each region's written forecast for more details.
Next Update: Saturday afternoon, Oct 4th.
-Jonathan Warren and the Surfline Forecast Team
Image 2: Surfline's HurricaneTrak, displaying Simon and its projected track/intensity.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UPDATED: 10-2-14
CURRENT STATUS: 18.3N, 108.0W as of 2:00PM PDT on Thursday, Oct 2nd 2014. Tropical Storm Simon is located around 340 miles SSE of the southern tip of Baja, and tracking west around 8kts. Max sustained winds are 45kts with central low pressure at 998mb.
STORM FORECAST: Simon is gradually becoming better organized, while tracking to the WNW and hovering over warm waters in an environment with little shear. This storm looks to remain on the WNW heading over the next couple days (entering SoCal swell window on Saturday), before possibly turning more northward over the weekend.
Good Things About Simon for SoCal swell potential
1. Fairly large in size at the moment.
2. Forecast to eventually move into the SoCal swell window by Saturday AM, then possibly heading more northerly after that (pushing toward SoCal).
3. Forecast to slowly strengthen over the next 2-3 days.
The Not So Good Thing About Simon
1. Not very well organized at the moment.
2. May not become that strong of a system.
SWELL POTENTIAL FOR SOCAL AND BAJA NORTE: Still needs to track further west and enter the swell window first (likely by Saturday AM). However, if it stays on track, then SoCal and Baja Norte may see a fun size bump of SSE (156-165°) move in by early next week (Mon/Tues).
SWELL POTENTIAL FOR BAJA SUR AND MEXICO: Much of Mainland Mex (primarily the central coast) is already seeing surf from Simon, but stormy weather prevails for the stretch of coast closest to the storm, along with variable/problematic winds (mostly sloppy storm surf). Better wind/weather conditions prevail around Puerto Vallarta through Mazatlan with the swell building in Friday into Saturday.
Baja Sur will see SSE shifting South swell from Simon move in this weekend (starting late Friday for Cabo and the East Cape). At this time, well exposed spots will offer head high to overhead surf from this swell. Also, this storm looks to stay far enough offshore from Baja Sur to allow good wind/weather conditions to prevail.
Stay tuned to each region's written forecast for more details.
Next Update: Friday afternoon, Oct 3rd.
-Jonathan Warren and the Surfline Forecast Team
Image 2: Surfline's HurricaneTrak, displaying Simon and its projected track/intensity.
Category: Hurricanes
No comments:
Post a Comment
Thank you. Comments are welcome.
ivan