Tropical Threat Heightens Risk for Flooding and Mudslides in Mexico, Central America
By Eric Leister, Meteorologist
October 20, 2015; 5:51 AM ET
A tropical low currently drifting westward to the south of Mexico and west of Central America is expected to develop into a named tropical system in the next 24 hours.
The combination of moving over warm ocean waters and into an area of lower wind shear will allow the tropical low to further organize.
In the meantime, showers and thunderstorms will be widespread from northwest Nicaragua through western Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala and Belize through Tuesday.
On Wednesday the threat for flash flooding will centered from from Guatemala into southeast Mexico.
While not all areas will experience heavy rainfall, the entire region is at risk for rainfall rates 50 mm (2 inches) or greater per hour at times resulting in an elevated risk for flash flooding.
San Jose, Guatemala reported more than 375 mm (15 inches) of rain since Sunday. Many locations from southeast Mexico to Belize and Guatemala have already received more than 100 mm (4 inches) of rain including Puerto Angel, Coatzacoalcos, Chetumal, Tuxtla Gutierrez and Guatemala City.
As the tropical low moves west-northwest development into a tropical storm is expected and the name Patricia would be given at that time.
Heavy rain will be a serious concern near and along the southern Mexico coastline from Tapachula to Lazaro Cardenas. Downpours could reach as far north as Manzanillo by Thursday or Friday.
Puerto Vallarta and Guadalajara are also at risk for flooding downpours late this week as the tropical system approaches the coast between Colola and Puerto Vallarta.
A westward track of this potential tropical system will allow rainfall to diminish from El Salvador and Honduras into Nicaragua as the week progresses.
An eventual landfall or at the very least a surge of tropical moisture into south-central and central Mexico is expected late this week and into the weekend bringing an elevated risk for flash flooding and mudslides to the region.
While Mexico City may miss the heaviest rainfall, daily thunderstorms are possible through this weekend with downpours capable of producing localized flash flooding.
As this moisture and potential tropical system are pulled northward, the unsettled weather could help fuel the development of a
tropical system in the western Gulf of Mexico and will also bring the threat for heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Texas and the Gulf Coast.
