California to see two big swells (+ unstable weather) while Hawaii remains decent but not huge By: Kevin Wallis

MIDWINTER XXL UPDATE California to see two big swells (+ unstable weather) while Hawaii remains decent but not huge By: Kevin Wallis

January 20, 2012 9443 visits

 

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• GFS chart showing the large storm over the Gulf of Alaska that sets up a strong fetch just offshore for the West Coast.
  

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After one of the driest early winters in recent memory, the 

North Pacific has opened back up with a series of storms that are hitting the west coast with rain and onshore winds -- and some big swell as well, though obviously not as clean as the few NW swells we saw at the beginning of the month.

With this in mind, we strolled over to the forecast side of the office and got the official XXL update from Kevin Wallis and the team:

 

California A large, complex low pressure system is developing in the eastern North Pacific with the 'parent' low in the Gulf of Alaska. A series of developing storms will rotate around this parent to a position immediately off the California coast over the next 2-3 days, setting up XXL size surf this weekend and then again early next week. Wind and weather conditions will be very unstable with periods of strong onshore wind this weekend, particularly for Northern California, although we could see a brief window of pretty manageable conditions Sunday morning. At this point, wind and weather conditions look much better for early next week.   Northern California The first of these WNW swells (270-300) will rapidly build into the region through Saturday afternoon and will peak overnight, if the storm continues to behave as forecast in the next 24 hours. The strongest swell during daylight hours will be late on Saturday, with a fading trend commencing by Sunday.   For late Saturday afternoon/evening, we will see 18-22' swell for the top deepwater/big wave breaks (35-45'+ faces). Wind conditions as the swell peaks Saturday afternoon will not be good with NW flow of 15-20kts (down a bit from earlier in the day) and some lingering showers.   Sunday morning will see a brief window of much lighter wind in between passing fronts. Light southerly flow early Sunday morning will give way to much stronger southerly wind in the afternoon 15-18kts, and rain returning.   The second swell will build in and be strongest during the daily hours, peaking Monday afternoon, if the storm behaves as forecast later this weekend. At this point it looks very similar in size to the Sat PM swell, but with much better wind and weather conditions as weak high pressure nudges over the region (wind Mon PM will be light/variable out of the NW).   Stay tuned, we'll keep everyone updated over the next couple days.   Northern Baja Northern Baja will be a little limited in size, relative to Northern California, with this run of swell more northwesterly in direction. That being said, very solid surf will prevail Sunday late afternoon and into Monday morning and then again Tuesday later afternoon.   The first swell will build quickly during the afternoon on Sunday, after a slow start through the morning. By late Sunday afternoon and evening swell will be in the 12 to occasional 15' range (20-25 occ. 30' faces). Monday morning is still strong, but the swell will have passed its peak and the tide is also high in the morning, which will dampen size.   Onshore Northwesterly flow will prevail Sunday afternoon as the swell comes up in the 10-15kt range, with high pressure off the coast of Southern California/Northern Baja. Overall, conditions are manageable but not ideal.   Going a bit further out, the second of the back to back swells looks similar in size to the Sunday PM swell and will build in for Tuesday afternoon, if the storm behaves as currently forecast. Wind in the morning will be light, with NW flow building in the afternoon 10-13kts for some bump.   Hawaii No XXL swells are currently on the radar, with the strongest storm activity centered in the east half of the North Pacific over the next several days.   We will see a series of NW swells for Hawaii over the weekend and during the week of the 23rd, but even the largest of these swells will not exceed 10' (assuming all storms behave as currently forecast).   -Kevin Wallis and the Surfline Forecast Team   Next update: Monday the 19th (at the latest; we'll likely update over the next couple days as these storms evolve)   MORE SURF NEWS  SURFLINE HOME PAGE http://www.surfline.com/surf-news/xxl-update-january_66002/