Viewpoint: Time to look beyond Mexico drug violence BBC News June 19, 2012

Viewpoint: Time to look beyond Mexico drug violence BBC News

June 19, 2012

Mexicans prepare to elect a new president on 1 July, David A Shirk of 
San Diego University’s Trans-Border Institute argues for an end to 
overly negative views of the country:

If Mexico were a stock, now might be the time to buy. The country has 
been severely under-valued in recent years.

Despite high rates of crime and violence elsewhere in Latin America, the 
media tend to focus relentlessly on Mexico’s drug war.

The murder rate is nearly 20 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, but this 
is significantly lower than in Brazil, Colombia, and Puerto Rico.

And the Central American nations of Belize, Guatemala and Honduras have 
murder rates nearly twice that of Mexico.

Still, because of exaggerated fears that Mexico is becoming a “failed 
state” or sliding into a “narco-insurgency,” many tourists and investors 
have shied away from the country.

And these fears in turn fuel often unfounded concerns about Mexico.

When five burned bodies were found in the Arizona desert earlier this 
month, the local authorities were quick to blame spillover violence from 
Mexico.

Post-mortem reports now indicate that the incident was probably 
something that is, unfortunately, more typical of the US: a 
murder-suicide in a troubled marriage.

*Bad press*

Mexico’s public relations problems have not been limited to security.

Three years ago, Mexico bore the brunt of the global H1N1 or swine flu 
crisis.

Some reports initially called it the Mexican influenza, even though the 
epidemic may well have started elsewhere in North America.

And in the latest wave of panic among global investors, the Mexican peso 
took an unexpected dive this month.

With some opinion polls showing increased support for Andres Manuel 
Lopez Obrador, the leftist candidate, the peso’s value dropped by 12% 
from its long, stable 13:1 ratio against the dollar.

But for long-term Mexico observers, things are not as bleak as they 
might first appear.

According to the latest analysis by the Trans-Border Institute, 
drug-related homicides were down by some 19% compared with the same time 
last year.

If this pattern continues, 2012 will see fewer drug killings than in the 
two previous years which saw admittedly high levels of violence with 
some 15,000 and 16,700 murders respectively.

Such a change would be welcome in itself but it would also reflect that 
there is much more to Mexico than drug violence.

While Mexico is on the list of travel warnings issued by the US state 
department, along with Iran, Algeria and Syria, it is still the number 
one destination for US citizens travelling abroad.

There were more than 20 million visits by Americans last year.

And an estimated one million US citizens reside permanently in Mexico.

*Consumers*

Mexico is also of growing economic importance. It needs to improve its 
energy sector, but it is the seventh largest oil producer and the third 
biggest oil supplier to the US market.

More US export-based jobs depend on Mexico than on any other country 
except Canada.

And Mexican investors now own major US brands like Dairy Fresh milk 
products, Entenmann’s pastries, and Thomas’ English Muffins.

Even the New York Times is part-Mexican, with billionaire Carlos Slim 
owning about 7% of the company and rights to buy up to 16%.

This all reflects the growing buying power and role of Mexican investors 
in the international economy in recent years.

The purchasing power of Mexicans is also set to grow in the coming decade.

Mexican income levels, currently around $13,000 (£8,350) per capita, 
have grown modestly but they have grown.

Shifting population dynamics and better employment opportunities in 
Mexico have also begun to reverse outbound migration, a major change on 
the last three decades.

*Challenges*

To be sure, Mexico is entering a time of some uncertainty.

The presidential election is likely to see the return to power of the 
Institutional Revolutionary Party, which ruled the country for 71 years.

Its candidate, Enrique Pena Nieto, benefits from a unified party 
apparatus, telemetric looks, and weak rivals in Mr Lopez Obrador and 
Josefina Vazquez Mota of the governing party.

For some, the PRI is unfit to take back the reins of power, given 
concerns about corruption within its ranks.

An alternative view is that the PRI’s alleged corruption allows it to 
negotiate with drug traffickers and restore order.

Both views are probably over-simplified.

Mexican voters have a lower tolerance for corruption than in the past, 
and with drug gangs fragmented after years of fighting it would be 
harder to strike a deal with them.

Mexico is unlikely to turn back the clock on democracy or fall prey to 
the fiery populism that has taken hold elsewhere in the region.

While security remains a problem, the drop in drug-related killings is 
promising.

Mexico was arguably the Greece of the 1980s and 1990s, suffering 
excruciating debt and monetary crises. But Mexico, which hosts the G20 
summit next week, is Greece no more.

The country is likely to continue to grow economically, reduce poverty, 
and nourish its small, but expanding, middle class.

Regardless of who wins on 1 July, it is time to change the conventional 
exceedingly bearish outlook on Mexico.

From BBC News Latin America