Heavy rain forecast in 3 states after Hurricane Bonnie forms in Pacific It's predicted the hurricane will advance parallel to the coast without making landfall Published on Monday, July 4, 2022

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 A radar image of cloud cover on July 4 at 9:40 a.m. shows Hurricane Bonnie off the Pacific coast of Mexico. CONAGUA

Heavy rain forecast in 3 states after Hurricane Bonnie forms in Pacific

It's predicted the hurricane will advance parallel to the coast without making landfall

Published on Monday, July 4, 2022

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Hurricane Bonnie, a Category 1 storm located off Mexico’s southern Pacific coast, will bring intense rain to parts of five states on Monday, the National Water Commission (Conagua) said.

In a statement issued at 7 a.m., Conagua said that Bonnie – which formed as a tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean before moving across a narrow section of Central America into the Pacific – was 265 kilometers south-southwest of Puerto Ángel, Oaxaca, and moving west-northwest at 30 kph.

It said that the hurricane – which is not forecast to make landfall in Mexico – would advance parallel to the coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero and that its extensive cloud bands would interact with two low pressure channels to bring intense rain of 75-150 millimeters to regions of Chiapas, Guerrero, Michoacán, Oaxaca and Veracruz.

Very heavy rain of 50-75 mm is forecast for parts of Puebla, while heavy 25-50 mm falls are predicted for areas of México state, Morelos and Tabasco.

In a rare journey from the Atlantic basin to the East Pacific, Tropical Storm #Bonnie has traversed a narrow section of Central America and revving up toward hurricane strength offshore southern #Mexico, as seen in storm-centered MIMIC microwave imagery. https://t.co/V0Va4edyAR pic.twitter.com/o0DyLfgYwd

— UW-Madison CIMSS (@UWCIMSS) July 3, 2022

Bonnie – which felled trees, caused widespread flooding and claimed the lives of at least three people in Nicaragua and El Salvador – had maximum sustained winds of 130 kph at 7 a.m. with gusts of up to 155 kph. Conagua forecast gusts of up to 90 kph and swells of 3-5 meters on the coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero.

The United States National Hurricane Center (NHC) said early Monday that swells on the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip conditions. With regard to its forecast path, the NHC said that the center of Bonnie is expected to move parallel to, but remain south of, the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days.

Although the hurricane is not on track to make landfall, authorities along Mexico’s southern Pacific coast are on alert for risks generated by Bonnie’s proximity. In addition, authorities in Oaxaca are restricting maritime activity due to the dangerous conditions at sea, while those in Guerrero decided to close schools Monday in six of seven regions. More than 750,000 students have been told to stay at home.

Bonnie is the fourth named storm in the Pacific this hurricane season after Hurricane Agatha, Hurricane Blas and Tropical Storm Celia. It was given a name starting with B because it was the second major storm to develop in the Atlantic this hurricane season.

Agatha made landfall in Oaxaca May 30 as a Category 2 hurricane, causing significant damage and claiming at least nine lives. Neither Blas nor Celia made landfall in Mexico.

The National Meteorological Service is predicting more hurricanes than usual this hurricane season. It’s predicting 14-19 tropical storms and hurricanes in the Pacific Ocean and 16-21 in the Atlantic.

With reports from Milenio and Al Jazeera 

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Bonnie roars to life as East Pacific's 3rd hurricane By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist Published Jul. 2, 2022 8:14 AM PDT | Updated Jul. 4, 2022 2:21 AM PDT

Bonnie roars to life as East Pacific's 3rd hurricane

By Renee Duff, AccuWeather meteorologist

Published Jul. 2, 2022 8:14 AM PDT | Updated Jul. 4, 2022 2:21 AM PDT

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Tropical Storm Bonnie hit the coast of Nicaragua at night on July 1, bringing high winds and rough waters.

Hurricane Bonnie has put an unusual stamp in the weather history books following its formation in the southwestern Caribbean Sea, passage through Central America and emergence into the East Pacific Ocean -- all within the span of 24 hours. Now, the second named storm of the Atlantic season has become the eastern Pacific Ocean's next hurricane.

At 10 p.m. CDT Sunday, Bonnie strengthened over East Pacific waters, just west of Nicaragua, and became the third hurricane of the season in the basin. At the time, Hurricane Bonnie had sustained wind speeds of 80 mph (128 km/h), making the cyclone a Category 1 hurricane (sustained winds of 74-95 mph or 119-153 km/h) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

As of 4 a.m. CDT Monday, Bonnie held steady with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (128 km/h) and was moving to the west-northwest at 18 mph (29 km/h), according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The hurricane was located 155 miles (250 km/h) south-southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico.

At the time of its landfall along the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border on Friday night, Bonnie was a 50-mph (80 km/h) tropical storm, with flooding rainfall being the primary risk to lives and property from the storm in these countries. Only two named storms on record have made landfall in Costa Rica, in 1887 and 1973. The only landfall farther south was Tropical Storm Martha in 1969, which is the only recorded landfall in the country of Panama.

By 10 a.m. CDT Saturday, Bonnie had moved offshore of Nicaragua and was charting a course through the waters of the East Pacific. Since the storm's circulation remained intact and did not fall apart over land, the NHC continued to dub the storm Bonnie, as opposed to giving it the next name on the 2022 East Pacific hurricane season's list (Darby). This is the first crossover storm since November 2016 when Hurricane Otto's circulation remained intact as it traveled over Costa Rica and emerged into the Eastern Pacific as a tropical storm.

"There have been close to 20 officially recognized crossover storms -- meaning they tracked in both the Eastern Pacific and the Atlantic basins. Another 20 or so storms may have crossed over but were never officially recognized as such," AccuWeather Senior Weather Editor Jesse Ferrell said.

Bonnie ran out of real estate to strengthen into a hurricane on the Atlantic side before moving inland in Central America. Forecasters say the opposite is true on the East Pacific side, where the storm is expected to roughly parallel the southern coast of Mexico, as well as El Salvador and Guatemala, this week.

Hurricane Bonnie churns south of the Mexican coastline early Monday morning, July 4, 2022. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)

"As Bonnie moves over the warm waters of the East Pacific, it will continue to have a window to strengthen this week," AccuWeather Meteorologist Mary Gilbert said.

The East Pacific basin has already had two hurricanes roar to life south of Mexico this season: Agatha, which made landfall in Oaxaca, and Blas, which stayed offshore. 

"The southwestern coast of Mexico can expect heavy rainfall, locally gusty winds and strong rip currents as the storm tracks south of the country," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Dan Pydynowski said.

Due to the overall limited impacts in Mexico with a track offshore, Bonnie has been rated a less than one on the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes in the country. Bonnie was rated a 1 on the AccuWeather RealImpact Scale for Hurricanes in Central America as a result of the high flood threat there.

From its origins, the storm has been anything but a typical tropical cyclone.

AccuWeather meteorologists began tracking the system as a tropical rainstorm during the last weekend of June as it swirled over 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

When the tropical rainstorm, designated by the National Hurricane Center as Potential Tropical Cyclone Two on Monday afternoon, June 27, formed at 8.6 latitude north, about 250 miles north of French New Guinea, it became one of the southernmost tropical cyclones ever tracked.

"According to the NOAA Hurricane Historical Tracks Archive, the only storm that formed farther south was Tropical Storm Bret that formed as a tropical depression at a mere 7.5 degrees north latitude on June 18, 2017, then made landfall as a tropical storm in southern Trinidad on June 20 of that year," Ferrell said.

The AccuWeather RealVue™ Satellite from Sunday afternoon, July 3, 2022, shows strengthening Bonnie over the eastern Pacific Ocean. (AccuWeather)

The rainstorm would then go on to make landfall in Trinidad and Tobago and then scrape the continent of South America, tracking over the Paraguaná Peninsula, a small peninsula located in the northern part of Falcón State, Venezuela. That's something that has only been recorded three times, with only another two tropical storms tracking even farther south in the country.

On Wednesday, June 29, the government of Venezuela closed schools and opened shelters while also limiting air and ground transportation due to the threat of heavy rain from future Bonnie, The Associated Press reported. 

The island of Curacao ordered businesses to close and imposed a curfew that began late Wednesday morning, the AP reported. Power outages were reported in Trinidad and Tobago due to the storm's passage early last week.