ATLANTIC SPRING OUTLOOK
Checking in on what's in-store for the East Coast, Europe and Caribbean
Atlantic Spring Outlook
Spring Outlook
Winter - if you can call it that here in the US - is over and the spring season is officially here. With that we wanted to give a quick heads up of what we expect heading into summer for the Atlantic basin.
La Nina is waning and we should return to an ENSO neutral phase through spring, but there is a lag time between the demise of La Nina and the weather patterns associated with this phase of ENSO.
Figure 1. Image showing expected return to neutral ENSO conditions through spring. Each line represents a climate model. Image courtesy of IRI.
Thus we are expecting to see the influence of La Nina on the weather through spring with the influence of La Nina on the weather patterns fading headed into summer. This means that we will continue to see a more inland storm track over the interior US through the Great Lakes region. Occasionally we will see low pressure push off of the Mid Atlantic/Northeast US coasts.
The Atlantic ridge has become a force over the past few weeks. This is easily seen in the image below showing the average sea level pressures over the last month. Notice that strong high pressure has been dominating much of the Atlantic basin. Low pressure has been dominant over Greenland.
Figure 2. Mean sea level pressure March 1st - March 19th. The Atlantic ridge has been dominant the past few weeks. Image copyright Surfline/Wavetrak. Data courtesy of NOAA NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project
Through the first three weeks of March, pressures are higher than normal over the western Atlantic. Surface pressures are much higher than normal (+11mb) over Ireland/UK and over the French/northern Spain coasts. Conversely, pressures have been much lower than normal over Greenland.
Figure 3. Difference plot indicating that the eastern half of the US and the western Atlantic are seeing higher than normal surface pressures across much of the Atlantic basin, especially over the UK. Image copyright Surfline/Wavetrak. Data courtesy of NOAA NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project
East Coast
The surf will be slow going at times with high pressure over the NC coast/western Atlantic region dominating the pattern. This will keep the storm track inland towards the Mid West and Great Lakes region. This ridge periodically breaks down at times allowing for low pressure to potentially develop over the western Atlantic and set up some swell for the NE and SE US regions. Chances are that at least one low pressure system will turn out to be a significant swell maker for the East Coast, but unfortunately these look like they will be few and far between.
The key will be the steering of any potential system as they develop - if they track off too fast in the North Atlantic then swell generation will be inhibited. Overall I would expect an average to below average spring for the Northeast US with the Southeast US potentially seeing an average season due to ESE trade windswell filtering in from the Atlantic ridge.
Florida
NE swells will be rare as they have been since January. However return flow around the Atlantic ridge will set up periodic E/ESE trade windswell/swell. We will watch the occasional low pressure system that pushes off of the US East Coast for NE swell potential. Chances are that at least one low pressure system will turn out to be a significant swell maker, but unfortunately these look like they will be few and far between. Overall there should be enough surf from the return flow around the West Atlantic ridge to produce an average spring.
Florida Gulf
A bad spring is expected here leading into summer for west Florida. A flat spell that has gripped the region really shows no signs of abating. It will be a good time to travel to other locations that have waves. The Florida Panhandle will fare better - the East Coast ridge will set up ESE/SE flow over the Gulf setting up periodic windswell. The Panhandle will be average while west FL is expected to see a below average spring.
Texas
Potentially benefiting from the East Coast ridge, return flow across the Gulf will keep some surf in the water for the Lone Star state. This will be best aimed towards the central/south portions of the coast but will be dependent on the strength of the ridge - stronger, broad high pressure is needed for this to occur like it has thus far. Also, periodic regions of instability over the state/coast may help to enhance the windswell at times. This will set up an average spring but one or two good swell could push the region to see an above average spring.
Caribbean
The Caribbean will see the NW swell season begin to shut down - there may be one or two NW/NNW swells in the tank but these will be snuffed out heading into summer. Rather occasional strong lows in the North Atlantic will be the primary source of swell sending NNE/NE swell to the region. However the occasional low pressure system squirting off of the East Coast may still send a significant N swell or two - in fact we are watching a potential area of interest for the last week in March. Overall the remainder of spring should be pretty average for the region to maybe slightly above average depending on location.
Europe
Europe is setting up for a pretty good spring with a lot of swell and high pressure helping to keep conditions in check for many locations. La Nina storm tracks, lacking for North America, are generally pretty good for sending swell to Europe. Towards the central/north Atlantic near Greenland we are expecting a pretty active storm region with low pressure systems sending plenty of swell to Europe. Occasional local low pressure systems/regions of instability will pop up near the European region but these can act to help keep winds in check at times. Europe is expected to see an above average to perhaps excellent spring.
Mike Watson
Surfline Forecaster
