[HuatulcoParadise.net] Tropical Storm Carlotta

[HuatulcoParadise.net] Tropical Storm Carlotta

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hurricanedivers email@hurricanedivers.com via yahoogroups.com	5:26 PM (4 minutes ago)
to huatulco

 

We are having quite a bit of rain, but the wind isn't that bad. Around 17:00 hrs I reckon we had the worst of it (the wind), with pretty strong gusts. Nothing extreme however.

Electricity, internet, satelite-tv, it's all working up to now....

By the looks of it the center just past Puerto Angel portside and it's following the coast line.

Roberto

--- In huatulco@yahoogroups.com, "hurricanedivers" wrote:
>
> We have a tropical storm in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, heading in our general direction.
>
> This is from the National Hurricane Center:
>
> MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...70 KM/H...
> WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
> NEXT 48 HOURS...AND CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
> THE TIME THE CENTER NEARS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
>
> It's predicted to make landfall close to Puerto Angel on Friday.
>
> Right now it's overcast and it looks like it's going to rain. No wind to speak of. I suspect we won't be able to go out the next few days....
>
> Roberto
>

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UPDATE 3-Hurricane Carlotta strengthens off Mexico's Pacific coast Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:24pm EDT

UPDATE 3-Hurricane Carlotta strengthens off Mexico's Pacific coast

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Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:24pm EDT

* Hurricane Category 1, expected to gain strength

* Pacific oil refinery not affected

* Storm far south of Los Cabos, location of G20 summit

By Mica Rosenberg

ACAPULCO, Mexico, June 15 (Reuters) - Hurricane Carlotta formed in the Pacific on Friday, strengthened quickly and traveled along a path that could bring it ashore on Mexico's southern coast later in the day or early Saturday, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

Carlotta, the third named storm of the Pacific hurricane season, escalated throughout the afternoon into a "rapidly intensifying Category 2 hurricane," the center said.

As it hurtled toward the coast, it reached maximum winds of nearly 105 mph (165 kph) with higher gusts. At 5 p.m. EDT/2100 GMT, it was about 65 miles (100 km) south-southeast of Puerto Angel and about 280 miles (450 km) southeast of the tourist city of Acapulco.

Officials expected it to move over or near the coast between the two beach resorts as early as Friday night. They expected a dangerous storm surge and significant coastal flooding across the area, though the hurricane could dissipate if it moves over the mountains of southern Mexico.

The Mexican government issued a hurricane warning from Punta Maldonado to Acapulco, where winds started to pick up on Friday afternoon. State oil company Pemex took preventative measures, but by late morning, the eye of the storm had passed north of its biggest refinery, the 330,000 barrel-per-day Salinas Cruz. The installation was operating normally.

The hurricane's path is far from the Baja California resort of Los Cabos, where the Group of 20 leaders of top economies are convening on Monday and Tuesday. Authorities said they did not expect Carlotta to make much of an impact and that the airport remained open.

In Acapulco, local government spokeswoman Maribel Helguera said they were preparing for heavy rains. In Acapulco, there was no sign of residents boarding up windows.

"Officials are visiting danger zones at risk from mudslides in the highlands to tell people the storm is coming and where to seek shelter if need be," she said.

Acapulco Mayor Veronica Escobar said there are 112 shelters in the state of Guerrero.

In neighboring Oaxaca, state weather officials reported moderate to heavy rainfall across the area. They said they had not yet ordered residents to evacuate or to suspend school.

The sun-drenched area last was hit by a hurricane in 1997, when Pauline made landfall near Puerto Angel, causing torrential rains, flooding and mudslides in two of Mexico's poorest states. Hundreds died and thousands were left homeless. The hurricane caused more than $400 million in damage.

In 2002, Hurricane Kenna hit south of Los Cabos while the city was hosting an international meeting of the 21-member Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation group. Strong winds from Kenna knocked over the main tent at the event where world leaders were set to attend a gala dinner. No one was injured.

Kenna hit land 300 miles (482 km) south of Los Cabos in 2002. Carlotta is expected to strike the coast much farther away.

Hurricane Carlotta threatens Mexico Hurricane Carlotta is getting closer to the Pacific coast of Mexico and is gaining strength. All residents should be weather ready for this intensifying storm.

Matt Daniel JUN 15, 2012

Hurricane Carlotta threatens Mexico

Visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Carlotta on June 15, 2012. Image Credit: NOAA

Hurricane Carlotta is getting closer to the Pacific coast of Mexico and is gaining strength. All residents should be weather ready for this intensifying storm.

Visible satellite imagery of Hurricane Carlotta on June 15, 2012. Image Credit: NOAA

Hurricane Carlotta, the third named storm for the 2012 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season, has formed and is threatening the coast of Mexico. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Pacific coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Acapulco. Carlotta is a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 85 miles per hour. Sea surface temperatures along the track of Carlotta are very warm with temperatures around 30°C (86°F). With light shear and warm sea surface temperatures, strengthening is likely to continue as it gets closer to the coast. All residents along the Pacific coast of Mexico east of Salina Cruz to Barra De Tonala and areas west of Acapulco to Tecpan De Galeana should monitor this situation as the storm inches closer to the coast. Carlotta will bring heavy rain and strong winds along the coast Friday evening and throughout Saturday, June 16, 2012.

Image Credit: Wikipedia

The latest information on Hurricane Carlotta:

11:00 AM PDT Friday, June 15, 2012
Location: 14.4°N 96.2°W
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Minimum pressure: 979 mb
Maximum sustained: 85 mph

Hurricane Warnings: The Pacific coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Acapulco.
Hurricane Watches: The Pacific coast of Mexico east of Salina Cruz to Barra De Tonala and west of Acapulco to Tecpan De Galeana.
Tropical Storm Warnings: The Pacific coast of Mexico east of Salina Cruz to Barra De Tonala

You can view a current loop image of Hurricane Carlotta (supports FLASH) by CLICKING HERE

Infrared rainbow image of Hurricane Carlotta around 1:30 PM EDT on June 15, 2012. Image Credit: NOAA

Hurricane Carlotta is expected to strengthen into a stronger hurricane in the next 24 to 36 hours. Intensity forecasts are still difficult for forecasters, but it appears as if all of the ingredients are together to allow intensification. The current forecast is for Carlotta to strengthen into a strong Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 100 mph. The National Hurricane Center is giving Carlotta roughly a 5% chance of becoming a major hurricane, or a Category 3 storm with sustained winds over 110 mph. As of now, hurricane force winds (74 mph or greater) only extend outward up to 25 miles, which is along the center of the storm. For the most part, it is a small system with tropical force winds extending 90 miles from the center. Carlotta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 MM) over the Mexican states of Chiapas, Guerrero, and northern Oaxaca. 6 to 10 inches (150 to 250 MM) are possible over southern Oaxaca and along the Guerrero coast, and some isolated areas could see as much as 12 to 15 inches (300 to 375 MM) along the Oaxaca coast. The biggest concern about Carlotta is flash flooding and mudslides across this region.

Track:

Here is the five day forecast track for Hurricane Carlotta. Flooding appears to be the biggest issue with this system. Image Credit: NHC

As of the 11 AM PDT update, Carlotta is 285 miles, or 460 kilometers southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Carlotta is expected to “hug” the coast of Mexico, but never fully push into the country. Instead, it will move northwest along the coast. If the storm pushes further north than expected, then the mountainous terrain should greatly weaken the system. By Sunday, Carlotta is expected to weaken into a tropical storm, and will eventually stall out and loop around the same area and provide more heavy rain and flooding across the region thanks to an area of high pressure to the west that will prevent it from pushing out to the Pacific ocean.

Bottom line: Hurricane Carlotta is the third named storm for the 2012 Eastern Pacific hurricane season. Carlotta is still intensifying, and it could become a strong Category 2 hurricane with winds around 100 mph as it nears the coast of Mexico. Hurricane warnings have been issued along the Pacific coast of Mexico from Salina Cruz to Acapulco. The biggest threats from Carlotta will be flash flooding and mudslides across the region. Rainfall totals could easily exceed 5-10 inches in many areas. Everyone in and around the track of Carlotta should closely monitor this situation.

Hurricane Carlotta nears Mexico coast with 80 mph winds Posted on June 15, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Hurricane Carlotta nears Mexico coast with 80 mph winds

Posted on June 15, 2012 by Bob Berwyn

Storm surge, mountain floods and mudslides expected

Hurricane Carlotta, far left, is growing and strengthening rapidly near the southern coast of Mexico.

Hurricane Carlotta could move along the coast of southern Mexico the next few days.

By Summit Voice

SUMMIT COUNTY —Hurricane  warnings are in effect for several hundred miles along the Pacific coast of Mexico including Acapulco, asHurricane Carlottaapproaches the area with winds that could reach 100 mph early in the weekend.

The biggest concerns are for a dangerous storm surge that will produce significant coastal flooding, along with powerful and destructive waves. Rainfall totals are forecast to reach 3 to 5 inches in Chiapas and northern Oaxaca, with higher amounts up 10 15 inches in the mountains of southern Oaxaca, where mudslides and flash flooding are possible.

The latest forecast track nudges Carlotta a bit farther north before the hurricane turns west again, which means the storm could weaken and even fall apart if it runs into the high mountains of southern Mexico, but the exact track has been hard to pinpoint. Carlotta could rake a large part of Mexico’s southern coast with high winds and heavy rains.

Officially, wind speeds are forecast to reach 90 mph by Friday evening and 100 mph by Saturday morning as the center nears the coast.

Posted at 12:28 PM ET, 06/15/2012 Hurricane Carlotta to slam Mexico with wind, flooding rain By Jason Samenow

Posted at 12:28 PM ET, 06/15/2012

Hurricane Carlotta to slam Mexico with wind, flooding rain

By Jason Samenow

Hurricane Carlotta at noon ET (9 am PT) (NOAA)Tropical storm Carlotta gained hurricane status this morning and continues to intensify in the Eastern Pacific. The category 1 storm has its sights set on the southwest coast of Mexico and may grow to category 2 levels - winds to 100 mph - before striking land. Hurricane warnings have been posted from Salina Cruz to Acapulco.

At 11 am (ET or 8 am PT), the center of storm was positioned 330 miles southeast of Acapulco and is moving northwest at 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds are 80 mph. The National Hurricane Center calls for “rapid strengthening” this afternoon and tonight.

In its morning forecast discussion, the National Hurricane Center wrote:

CONVECTION AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CARLOTTA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED..WITH THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL AND EYE INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.

. . .

CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO. THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...

Forecast maximum sustained winds at landfall are around 100 mph.

Landfall is set to occur around 2 am (ET, or 5 am PT) but heavy rain and wind will begin battering the coast well before that.

Radar image from Puerto Angel at noon ET (9 a.m. PT). Link: Live RadarLocal radar imagery from Puerto Angel already shows some of the storm’s outer bands moving inland with Carlotta’s well-defined eye offshore.

NHC expects tropical storm conditions in the affected areas this afternoon and hurricane conditions tonight. As the storm makes landfall early tomorrow morning, a dangerous storm surge will push ashore north and east of the center.

The most signficant impact from Carlotta is likely to be flooding rain and possible mudslides. Writes the NHC:

ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...75 TO 125 MM...OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...GUERRERO...AND NORTHERN OAXACA...WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES...150 TO 250 MM...EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN OAXACA. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 15 INCHES...300 TO 375 MM MM...ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE OAXACA COAST...WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES...150 TO 200 MM ALONG THE GUERRERO COAST.

The HWRF model simulates a widespread area of southwest Mexico receiving 20-40+ cm (8-16 inches) of rain from Hurricane Carlotta. (Florida State)

AccuWeather notes the mountains of Oaxaca could see “feet of rain” due to upslope flow enhancing rainfall coupled with the fact parts of the storm will linger for days.

Although the most severe impacts from Carlotta are expected in the hurricane warning area between Salina Cruz and Acapulco, heavy rains and gusty winds are possible in the hurricane watch area, which spans from: (north)west of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana and (south)east of Salina Cruz to Barra de Tonala.

By Jason Samenow  |  12:28 PM ET, 06/15/2012

Categories:  Latest, Tropical Weather, International Weather

Tropical Depression 3-E becoming better organized, now located 470 miles SSE of Puerto Angel, Mexico, with 35 mph winds.

Puerto Ángel, Oaxaca, MX

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• CARLOTTA

@breakingweather tweeted:

Tropical Depression 3-E becoming better organized, now located 470 miles SSE of Puerto Angel, Mexico, with 35 mph winds.

• Submitted Jun 13, 2012, 10:56 p.m. from twitter.com by editor

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