So how does all this affect prices?The primary determinant of how many cheap flights you see on a route is how much competition there is between airlines. This includes not just the number of airlines competing on a route, but also how frequent flights are. The fact that flight volume is still down near 15% compared to 2019 means there’s less competition between airlines putting downward pressure on fares.
So while the bad news is that fewer flights means higher fares today, the good news is that there’s reason to expect flight volume will increase over the next 12-24 months.
Take two quick examples. First, transpacific travel will improve as China and Japan reopen (Japan officially reopens October 11 for independent travel). Passenger volume between the US and China is currently down 98% compared to 2019; that demand will improve sharply once China reopens for tourism, and Chinese airlines will flood the market with transpacific flights as they did pre-pandemic, forcing other airlines across the board to slash fares throughout the region.
Second, the pilot shortage that’s currently hobbling many airlines and forcing airlines to cut their flight schedules will (hopefully!) improve as airlines’ investments in flight schools and pay raises tempt more would-be pilots into the field.
This time in 2023, we’re hopeful that we’ll see increased flight volume, which in turn will lead to lower load factors and lower fares.
In the meantime, when deals pop up, we’ll let you know. For example, last week we found deals including: |
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ivan