Falling Flight Prices Scott's Cheap Flights

View in Browser

Airfare really did spike in the spring—and now it’s falling nearly as quickly. Why is that important to know? Because if your sense of what flight prices should be hasn’t been updated since the spring, you’re at risk of overpaying for your next trip.

Fares shot up, then fell Average fares peaked in late May, up 27% from a year earlier in inflation-adjusted terms. Since then, airfare fell 3% in June and fell 8% in July, the third largest drop on record. Why are fares falling so quickly? There’s a rule of thumb about summer travel: flights after Labor Day are 50% cheaper than flights before Labor Day. (That’s because as schools resume, the number of travelers slides throughout August and then falls off a cliff post-Labor Day.) What flights were most people booking in the spring? Summer trips. And what flights are people booking now? Fall travel, when fares are significantly cheaper.

Should I book now or wait for fares to drop further? This may sound reductive, but the best time to book your flight is when fares are cheap. And cheap fares are most likely to pop up during a Goldilocks Window—a certain period in advance of travel.

Goldilocks Window Off Peak Domestic: 1-3 months International: 2-8 months Peak Domestic: 3-7 months International: 4-10 months

If you’re hoping to visit Chicago in early November and tickets are expensive right now, absolutely wait to book. There’s a great chance cheap fares will pop up in the next couple months. But if you’re hoping to take a September trip, the Goldilocks Window is coming to a close. Even if average fares fall further in next month’s inflation report—as I expect they will!—that won’t help because waiting means you’d be booking those dreaded, most-expensive type of tickets: last-minute.

Remember to rebook and save if fares drop If you're reading this with despair because you recently booked an expensive ticket, I’ve got good news: unless you’ve got a basic economy ticket, you can rebook the same flight and pocket the difference in flight credit. For example, I booked a domestic flight not long ago for $300. (It was painful, but I had very little flexibility.) A few weeks later, when fares for that flight dropped to $160, I canceled the ticket for $300 in travel credit, used that to repurchase the same flight, and wound up with the same ticket plus $140 in flight vouchers. More info on this strategy here.

Recent deals There are still plenty of expensive flights around, but far more cheap flights in the mix now, too. In the past few weeks, we’ve seen roundtrip fares from various cities like $161 to Hawaii, $226 to Norway, and $366 to Lisbon—all nonstop. Don’t settle for expensive flights because you haven’t updated your priors on airfare. The Golden Age of Cheap Flights is still very much alive.

SPONSORED BY: Get TSA Precheck free with 1 of these travel cards These top travel cards offer a rare combination of incredible travel rewards, long 0% intro interest and no annual fee. Learn more

Our biggest celebration of the year! It’s our birthday month, and that’s cause for celebration. Stay tuned later this week as we kick off the party with great gifts and giveaways.

SPONSORED BY: Traveling soon? Pay 0 interest with these travel cards Carrying a balance on a high interest credit card or making some big purchase travel plans later this year? It’s time to switch cards and start saving money today. Your travel budget will thank you. Learn more

Cool stuff we like You can bathe in cheese (or at least its whey) in Switzerland Europe’s best street food destinations The best no-hassle travel credit cards have amazing rewards plus no annual fee* Booze-free bars are on the rise