Vance a Potential Heavy Rain Threat to Mexico By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on November 01, 2014

Vance a Potential Heavy Rain Threat to Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:29 PM GMT on November 01, 2014
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Satellite images show that Tropical Storm Vance has an expanding area of heavy thunderstorms that have improved in organization since Friday. Vance is over warm waters with low wind shear, so intensification into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday is a good bet, but the storm's heaviest rains will remain well offshore from Mexico through Sunday. Vance will get pulled to the northeast by a trough of low pressure on Monday, but might not make it all the way to Mexico. The 8 am EDT Saturday run of theSHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain low, 5 - 10 knots, though Monday, then ramp up significantly on Monday night and Tuesday as Vance gets caught up in the trough of low pressure that will sling it towerds Mexico. The higher wind shear will likely be able to tear Vance apart before landfall, making heavy rain the primary threat. In their 11 am EDT Saturday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave a 7 - 11% chance that Vance would bring tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph to Puerto Vallarta and the tip of the Baja Peninsula. The 06Z Saturday run of the GFDL model predicted that Vance's moisture would bring a swath of heavy rains of 4 - 8" from just northwest of Puerto Vallarta into Texas, Tuesday night into Wednesday.


Figure 1. VIIRS satellite image of Tropical Storm Vance off the Pacific coast of Mexico on Thursday, October 31, 2014. At the time, Vance had top sustained winds of 40 mph. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

Tropical Storm Nuri may brush Japan
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Nuri is near typhoon strength, and is headed towards Japan. Nuri may pass close enough to Japan on Thursday to bring them heavy rain, but a direct hit appears unlikely. 

Quiet in the Atlantic
The Atlantic is quiet today, with no areas of concern to discuss. None of the three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis predicts any development in the Atlantic over the next five days. With November at hand and El Niño-like atmospheric conditions in place, the odds of getting Tropical Storm Isaias before the end of the Atlantic hurricane season on November 30 are probably around 30%.

Jeff Masters

On the Horizon: Reclining Seats at Takeoff? October 28, 2014 1:06 pm by Dara Continenza

On the Horizon: Reclining Seats at Takeoff?
Every so often, we hear about a trend in air travel that makes us delirious with rage: windowless airplanesbackless seatsfees to print boarding passes. But today brings a trend we can totally get behind (or on top of): reclining at takeoff and landing. 
Australian airline Qantas is in the final stages of introducing a new business-class seat that reclines from takeoff to touchdown. Passengers would be able to board the plane, immediately recline their seats, and start napping—no more waiting for an OK from the flight deck, and no more rude awakening when the flight attendant says, "Please return your seat to the upright position."
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The new seats will have an over-the-shoulder belt that must be in place for takeoff and landing. The new seatbelts would click into the already-existing lap belt system. Seats can't be reclined fully flat until the plane reaches level flight, but 5- to 7-inch recline is available during taxiing, takeoff, and landing, with the lie-flat capability during the rest of the flight. 
Currently, Qantas is seeking approval for the new seats for their Airbus A330 aircraft. The last few stages include some regulatory approval, but it looks like this service is set for an early 2015 debut. This comes as Qantas refreshes all A330s, including adding new Panasonic seatback entertainment systems throughout business and economy cabins as well as a refurb for all economy seats (so us peasants don't feel left out). 
Assuming all goes well, we imagine that other airlines, especially those with long-haul flights, may want to jump into the gate-to-gate recline market. It's a fairly inexpensive way to add some comfort to cramped aircraft cabins, and airlines are forever wooing premium-class flyers with small add-ons. Count among those add-ons a decent night's sleep.
Readers, would you like to fall asleep the minute you reach your seat?
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